How to find value on soccer betting odds?
Everything in sports betting is about defeating the sportsbooks. If you find an opportunity to overcome a bookie, you have to take it! That’s what happens when you find a value bet.
Everybody talks about finding value bets in the sports betting world. However, how can you find value on soccer betting odds?
What are value bets and how to find them?
Value bets are those in which the bookie pays a higher bet price than the amount that bet should be. This type of betting is valuable for the bettor since the bookie is offering him a higher odd than the estimated probability of occurrence of that result.
When we bet, our minds think about the result that can happen with greater probability. Sportsbooks publish their odds, and you can easily see them online. But, how can you estimate the probability of occurrence of a possible outcome?
That probability will depend on the factors that each person uses to measure it. Some gamblers consider some aspects of a match while others prioritize other elements.
Some people average the odds offered by several sportsbooks for the same possible result of a match. Some punters review the recent form of the teams in their last games. Others look for relevant information in news and rumors about the teams involved.
Likewise, some websites and applications show results, goals, and other data from many leagues in the world. With this information, it is possible to estimate the probability of occurrence of a result.
For this, you must consider previous games that have been played under conditions similar to those of the game you want to predict.
To calculate the probability, you must know how many times something has happened among all the times it has been played. For example, how many times has a team won as a visitor within its total number of games played in a season?
Then, you must compare your odd with the sportsbooks’ odd where you are going to bet.
Let’s say we calculate the probability that a team scores a goal in the first half of a match. Suppose you have played 20 games this season and scored a goal or more in the first half in 8 of them.
We can say that this team has a probability of 8/20 = 0.40. This represents a 40% probability of scoring a goal in the first half. The odd is the inverse of that probability: (1/0.40) = 2.50
So, if the bookie offers an odd greater than 2.50 for the event that that team scores at least one goal in the first half, we have a value bet!
To do a complete analysis, we should calculate the probability that the opposing team will not accept goals.
Every time you hit a value bet, you will be winning extra money, and every time you hit an undervalued bet, you will stop winning money. Therefore, the value bets will lead you to increase your profitability in the long term.